Tuesday’s 0-0 draw away to Dinamo Zagreb leaves Celtic with a 95% chance of reaching the Play Off stage of the Champions League according to Football Meets Data.
The new format to the competition has been welcomed by statisticians who initially based their forecasts on past results and co-efficients but with half of the teams having played six of their eight matches far more accurate predictions can be made.
Celtic fans gave a mixed reaction to the draw against the Croatian champions but there can be no getting away from the fact that it was a step forward in the competition.
It could have been a bigger step but one defeat in three matches away from home is a sign of progress, if Celtic are back in the competition next season they should be capable of getting that elusive win away from home.
While legacy media loves to drag up negative statistics about Celtic in Europe it does need reinforced that no bonus points are awarded away from home, every point is of equal value. Two draws keeping clean sheets is good going at this level regardless of what club is involved.
European thoughts are now shelved for five weeks as a hectic domestic programme of a Cup Final and eight SPFL matches gets into the guys of the season before YB Bern are considered.
Since the 5-1 victory over Slovan Bratislava in September the home match against the Swiss champions has been viewed as another prime opportunity to pick up points. Any win will ensure further progress, even a draw could be good enough but no-one at Celtic will be thinking that way on the next Champions League night.
YB will enjoy a five week break followed by one league match before they visit the chill of Celtic Park on January 22. They will either be refreshed or rusty.
Tonight YB are away to Stuttgart, the German’s have only picked up four points but will be strongly fancied to win tonight, leaving YB at the bottom of the table with no points after six matches.
Clubs most likely to participate in the UCL KO playoff round (positions 9-24), as of 10 Dec:
97% 🇪🇸 Real Madrid
95% 🏴 Celtic
92% 🇧🇪 Club Brugge
92% 🇵🇹 Sporting
87% 🇫🇷 Monaco
85% 🇵🇹 Benfica
85% 🇮🇹 Juventus
84% 🏴 Man City
83% 🇳🇱 PSV
75% 🇳🇱 Feyenoord
75% 🇫🇷 Lille
73% 🇮🇹 Atalanta…— Football Meets Data (@fmeetsdata) December 11, 2024
After going in blind at the start of the new format a few issues are starting to emerge, although Dinamo Zagreb are only a point behind Celtic going away to Arsenal then hosting AC Milan suggests that they are unlikely to pick up more points.
Five clubs are on nine points alongside Celtic, four are a point behind on eight but Feyenoord on seven points are in 25th place, three ahead of Stuttgart who are on four points from five matches.
Last night’s defeat to Aston Villa ends the qualification hopes of RB Leipzig, unless there are a serious of surprise results tonight as many as 10 teams could be out of contention to stay in the competition.
That is likely to push up the total required for 24th place, nine points looks unlikely, 10 is probable but with the cut off it could require 11 points to be certain.
If Celtic can beat YB to reach 12 points that should be enough to raise qualification chances from 95% to 100% and ensure two more matches in February.
Probabilities to qualify for Top 24:
8⃣ pts = 5%
9⃣ pts = 38%
1⃣0⃣ pts = 83%
1⃣1⃣ pts = 99%
1⃣2⃣ pts = 100%Probabilities to qualify for Top 8:
1⃣4⃣ pts = 0.3%
1⃣5⃣ pts = 11%
1⃣6⃣ pts = 64%
1⃣7⃣ pts = 98%
1⃣8⃣ pts = 99.9%
1⃣9⃣ pts = 100% pic.twitter.com/XZqNFqiApb— Football Meets Data (@fmeetsdata) December 11, 2024
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