Benfica or PSV for Celtic as Football Meets Data project the Champions League Play Off’s

Five marches into a brand new format Football Meets Data has been in overdrive projecting forward the most like Champions League outcomes for Celtic.

Finishing in 20^th place is the group stage prediction which will comfortably provide a place in the Round of 16 Play Offs in February which would be mission accomplished.

Teams placed between 9 and 24 in the final table will be involved in those matches with the teams finishing from 9^th to 16^th having the advantage of playing at home in the second leg as the competition reverts to knock-out format.

Taking things one stage further PSV Eindhoven or Benfica are the most likely opponents, teams of a similar stature to Club Brugge and at the level Celtic can realistically aspire towards emulating.

Most likely UCL KO playoff pairings (as of 28 Nov):

6.0% Brest 🇫🇷 – Real Madrid 🇪🇸
5.8% Lille 🇫🇷 – Feyenoord 🇳🇱
5.7% Benfica 🇵🇹 – Juventus 🇮🇹
5.6% Celtic 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 – PSV 🇳🇱
5.6% Monaco 🇫🇷 – Benfica 🇵🇹
5.5% Brest 🇫🇷 – PSV 🇳🇱
5.5% Celtic 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 – Benfica 🇵🇹
…

— Football Meets Data (@fmeetsdata) November 28, 2024

Celtic’s matches are pivotal to the projections but are balanced up by the other 15 ties on each Matchday being referenced to the earlier results in the 32 team group.

In theory Celtic have already played their toughest opponents with the clubs from Pot 1 and 2 faced.

Next up for Brendan Rodgers’ squad is a trip to face Dinamo Zagreb who have did well to pick up seven points out-with two heavy defeats to German clubs, losing 9-2 on Matchday 1 to Bayern Munich and 3-0 at home to Dortmund last night.

The December 10 match almost takes on the status of a six pointer, a win for Celtic would take then four points clear of the Croatian champions with just two matches still to be played.

Realistically, and bearing in mind where Celtic have come from a draw in Zagreb would be a good result giving Rodgers’ squad the chance to go onto 12 points by beating YB Berne in Matchday 7.

Since the opening day victory over Slovan Bratislava the home game against the Swiss champions has been viewed as a banker win for Celtic, despite a change of manager YB are still pointless and in bottom spot with a -15 goal difference on the back of a 6-1 home defeat from Atalanta.

Part of the fun of Football Meets Data is that predictions alter from match to match but past the halfway stage their projections are getting stronger with Champions League football in February looking increasingly likely as the adventure stretches into uncharted territory.

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  Updated probabilities to qualify for Top 24:

  7⃣ pts = 0.3%
  8⃣ pts = 11%
  9⃣ pts = 46%
  1⃣0⃣ pts = 87%
  1⃣1⃣ pts = 99.8%
  1⃣2⃣ pts = 100% pic.twitter.com/qYAs8jOs41

  — Football Meets Data (@fmeetsdata) November 28, 2024

  Clubs most likely to participate in the UCL KO playoff round (positions 9-24):

  88% 🇪🇸 Real Madrid
  87% 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Celtic
  86% 🇳🇱 PSV
  86% 🇵🇹 Benfica
  86% 🇫🇷 Monaco
  84% 🇮🇹 Juventus
  83% 🇫🇷 Brest
  81% 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Man City
  78% 🇳🇱 Feyenoord
  75% 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Aston Villa
  72% 🇫🇷 Lille
  65% 🇪🇸 Atlético Madrid
  65% 🇵🇹…

  — Football Meets Data (@fmeetsdata) November 27, 2024